ESPN NFL Power Rankings: Week 17

• Tweet
• Pin It

There’s only one week to go in the regular season. How do all 32 teams compare to preseason expectations?

Here’s a rundown of the Week 17 Power Rankings as voted on by the ESPN power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — with a look at how every team measures up to its preseason win total.

ESPN Stats & Information’s John McTigue contributed the following information. Preseason totals are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Methodology: These rankings are based on which teams voters think would win head-to-head matchups. Higher-ranked teams would be favored against lower-ranked teams. Coming off a win doesn’t guarantee a jump, and a loss doesn’t guarantee a fall.

Previous rankings: Week 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3| 2 | Preseason

1. New England Patriots

2017 record: 12-3
Week 16 ranking: No. 1

12.5 wins: New England has won 12 games for the eighth straight season, the longest streak of its kind in NFL history. A potential 13th win is on the line in Week 17 in Foxborough against the Jets. The last time Tom Brady lost a regular-season home game to the Jets: 2006.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2017 record: 12-3
Week 16 ranking: No. 2

10.5 wins: Pittsburgh ranks seventh in points scored and fifth in points allowed this season, so it’s no surprise how well the team is doing. A Week 17 matchup against the winless Browns stands in the way of the Pittsburgh’s first 13-win season since 2004 — Ben Roethlisberger‘s rookie season.

3. Minnesota Vikings

2017 record: 12-3
Week 16 ranking: No. 4

8.5 wins: Minnesota blew by its projection back in Week 12. Case Keenum‘s surprise season keeps making waves, but give it up for Minnesota’s defense. It ranks second in the NFL in both points allowed (16.1 per game) and yards allowed (280.9 per game).

4. Los Angeles Rams

2017 record: 11-4
Week 16 ranking: No. 5

6 wins: You know you’re having a special season when you hit your preseason over/under halfway through the schedule. That’s what Los Angeles did this year. And while Jared Goff‘s improvement has been key, give some love to Todd Gurley, who eclipsed 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Week 16.

 

5. Philadelphia Eagles

2017 record: 13-2
Week 16 ranking: No. 3

8.5 wins: It took Philadelphia 10 games to pass its preseason projection. But now without Carson Wentz, who knows what will happen, but Philly is 2-0 since Nick Foles has taken over. Even accounting for Foles at quarterback, FPI rates Philadelphia as a top-three team.

6. New Orleans Saints

2017 record: 11-4
Week 16 ranking: No. 7

8 wins: Drew Brees is still doing his thing and the defense is much-improved, but New Orleans set out to run the ball this season and run the ball it has. The Saints have accumulated 22 rushing touchdowns, their second most in franchise history.

7. Carolina Panthers

2017 record: 11-4
Week 16 ranking: No. 8

9 wins: Cam Newton has had some of the best success of his career running this year, which has helped Carolina to 11 wins. Newton currently leads the team in rushing and has set a career high in yards on designed rushing plays.

8. Kansas City Chiefs

2017 record: 9-6
Week 16 ranking: No. 10

9 wins: After a 5-0 start, it seems pretty crazy that Kansas City might not surpass nine wins. It seems even crazier when you take into consideration that, according to Elias Sports Bureau research, the Chiefs are just the second team with a 4,000-yard passer (Alex Smith), a 1,000-yard running back (Kareem Hunt), a 1,000-yard wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) and a 1,000-yard tight end (Travis Kelce).

9. Jacksonville Jaguars

2017 record: 10-5
Week 16 ranking: No. 6

6.5 wins: The Jaguars have cruised past their projected wins, but forgive fans for feeling a little uneasy after their Week 16 loss. The defense allowed 40-plus points to the 49ers while Blake Bortles threw his first pick-six of the year and had his first three-interception game since Week 3 of 2016.

10. Baltimore Ravens

2017 record: 9-6
Week 16 ranking: No. 12

8.5 wins: Baltimore hovered around .500 for a bit, but Joe Flacco and the offense have finally started holding up their end of the bargain. Over the past four weeks, Flacco has thrown seven touchdowns to one interception after throwing nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions in the first 11 games of the season.

11. Atlanta Falcons

2017 record: 9-6
Week 16 ranking: No. 9

9.5 wins: The 2016 Panthers are the only Super Bowl loser in the past eight seasons to miss the playoffs the following year. Atlanta would need to lose to Carolina in Week 17 for that to be a possibility. A win would mean another shot at a Super Bowl run for the Falcons.

12. Los Angeles Chargers

2017 record: 8-7
Week 16 ranking: No. 15

7.5 wins: The Chargers’ record is still good enough to keep them in the postseason hunt. While Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon both have racked up 1,000 yards, it’s the defense that is doing the best work. Los Angeles has allowed 17.5 points per game this season, its fewest since 1992.

13. Seattle Seahawks

2017 record: 9-6
Week 16 ranking: No. 11

10.5 wins: Seattle won’t reach 11 wins, but a 10-win season could still get the Seahawks back into the playoffs for a sixth straight season. It all rests on Russell Wilson, who will likely finish as the team’s leading rusher and has set an NFL record for fourth-quarter passing touchdowns, per Elias Sports Bureau research.

14. Detroit Lions

2017 record: 8-7
Week 16 ranking: No. 16

7.5 wins: Prior to Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati, all of Detroit’s losses had been to teams that have either clinched a playoff berth or are likely to do so in Week 17. But despite going over their projection, the Lions will not make the playoffs.

15. Buffalo Bills

2017 record: 8-7
Week 16 ranking: No. 17

6.5 wins: Finishing above its projection is nice for Buffalo, but the team and the city would really love a playoff berth to go along with it. The Bills haven’t made the playoffs since 1999, the longest playoff drought in the league.

16. Dallas Cowboys

2017 record: 8-7
Week 16 ranking: No. 13

9.5 wins: Dallas just didn’t have the same magic it did in 2016. After throwing just four interceptions last year, Dak Prescott has thrown 13 interceptions this season, four of which were returned for touchdowns.

17. Tennessee Titans

2017 record: 8-7
Week 16 ranking: No. 18

9 wins: Is Marcus Mariota actually holding back the Titans? In his past six games — a stretch in which Tennessee is 2-4 — Mariota has thrown six touchdowns to nine interceptions. To put that in perspective: Mariota threw nine interceptions in all of 2016.

18. Washington Redskins

2017 record: 7-8
Week 16 ranking: No. 21

7.5 wins: Washington has hovered around .500 ever since making Kirk Cousins the primary starter in 2015 but has yet to dip below. If the team wins in Week 17, it will mean a third straight season of .500 or better — something Washington hasn’t done since 1999 to 2001.

19. San Francisco 49ers

2017 record: 5-10
Week 16 ranking: No. 23

5 wins: Clearly the win total came well before the Jimmy Garoppolo deal. Garoppolo is now 4-0 as the starter in San Francisco, the only undefeated quarterback in the league since Week 13.

20. Oakland Raiders

2017 record: 6-9
Week 16 ranking: No. 19

9.5 wins: Last year’s 12-4 campaign seemed like a sign of brighter days ahead for the Raiders, but 2017 is making 2016 look like an aberration. Oakland’s offense is averaging six points fewer per game this season, which has led to a 14th non-winning season in the past 15 years.

21. Green Bay Packers

2017 record: 7-8
Week 16 ranking: No. 14

10.5 wins: The expectation was Green Bay would post yet another winning season, but heading into Week 17, the best-case scenario for the Packers is a .500 finish. Losing Aaron Rodgers hurt, and Brett Hundley‘s failing to throw a touchdown pass at Lambeau Field didn’t help.

22. Cincinnati Bengals

2017 record: 6-9
Week 16 ranking: No. 26

8.5 wins: Marvin Lewis got one last win in Cincinnati before his reported farewell from the team following Week 17. Win or lose next week, Cincy is finishing under 8.5 wins, but a few breaks here and there could have led to a different story. The Bengals have lost four games by four or fewer points this season, tied for second most in the NFL.

23. Arizona Cardinals

2017 record: 7-8
Week 16 ranking: No. 22

8.5 wins: Arizona has had an up-and-down season. The Cardinals have only one winning or losing streak of two games this season — lost in Weeks 10 and 11 — and have essentially alternated wins and losses all other weeks. Hard to go over 8.5 wins doing that all season.

24. Miami Dolphins

2017 record: 6-9
Week 16 ranking: No. 20

7 wins: Miami has clinched its eighth non-winning season in the past nine years. Would things have turned out differently with Ryan Tannehill at the helm? Jay Cutler‘s Total QBR this season is lower than any season of Tannehill’s career.

25. Houston Texans

2017 record: 4-11
Week 16 ranking: No. 27

8.5 wins: Houston could have very well finished with a winning season had Deshaun Watson stayed healthy. Houston was 3-3 and averaging almost 35 points per game with Watson as the starter. In all other games, Houston has gone 1-8 and averaged 13 points per game.

26. New York Jets

2017 record: 5-10
Week 16 ranking: No. 25

3.5 wins: At first it looked like New York would finish well beyond 3.5 wins, starting the season 3-2. The team is just 2-8 since then, tied for the third-worst record since Week 6. Put it all together, though, and you still have a team exceeding expectations.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2017 record: 4-11
Week 16 ranking: No. 28

8.5 wins: Jameis Winston has lost his past nine starts, tied for the second-longest active losing streak among starting quarterbacks behind only rookie DeShone Kizer. Winston’s numbers might not look bad, but more wins were expected following the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard.

28. Chicago Bears

2017 record: 5-10
Week 16 ranking: No. 29

5.5 wins: A trip to Minnesota in Week 17 could keep Chicago from reaching six wins, but the Bears are close to that mark thanks to Jordan Howard. If Howard can rush for another touchdown in Week 17, he’d be the first Chicago player with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Raymont Harris in 1997.

29. Denver Broncos

2017 record: 5-10
Week 16 ranking: No. 24

8 wins: Denver’s disappointing campaign can be boiled down to quarterback play. Broncos QBs have combined for 17 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.

30. New York Giants

2017 record: 2-13
Week 16 ranking: No. 30

9 wins: How bad has this season been for New York? A Week 17 victory over Washington would mean the Giants’ fewest wins (3) since 1983, when they went 3-12-1. A loss would mean their fewest wins since 1974, when they went 2-12.

 

31. Indianapolis Colts

2017 record: 3-12
Week 16 ranking: No. 31

8 wins: Without Andrew Luck, the Colts’ chances at an eight-win season took a serious dive. Since Luck was drafted in 2012, Indianapolis is just 9-15 (.375) without Luck and 43-27 (.614) with him.

32. Cleveland Browns

2017 record: 0-15
Week 16 ranking: No. 32

4.5 wins: Switch that to 0.5. Does Cleveland go over? If it doesn’t happen, the Browns would be the second team in NFL history to finish 0-16, joining Detroit’s 2008 squad.

• Tweet
• Pin It