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Lamar on APR Probation?


KABrother88

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How ugly is this situation going to get? I pulled the raw data from the NCAA's website, and attempted to figure out how bad the situation was... and it gives me some concern, although there are so many damned loopholes, exceptions, and credits that perhaps it's not as bad as I fear.

 

For next year, we need either a 930 4-year average or 940 2-year average to avoid penalties. Obviously, from the news we've heard, we didn't achieve this. Looking at the raw numbers, they're pretty ugly.

 

The APR for 2008-09 was a good 976, but 2009-10 was a poor 925, 2010-11 was an awful 902, and 2011-12 was a horrid 896. So for next year, we're "losing" the good 2008-09 numbers from our four-year average, and the numbers from the end of Roc's era were... well... not so good. So since these numbers are calculated a year behind, we'd need to have averaged 978 for 2012-13 to have had a chance to not be penalized--and that was assuming we could make the 940 2-year average--making the 930 4 year average would have required us to have had a perfect 1000 (actually, a 997, but I don't think that's possible) to meet that bar.

 

Now while I think it might be easier to figure out the IRS tax code or the intricacies of Schrodinger's equation than to calculate the APR, I took a swing at it looking at the 2012-13 roster. It appears from what I can find in the NCAA's documentation that you can get as many as four (out of four) points for a player if they stay in school for the year, progress toward graduation, and return for the next year. If a player stays eligible but transfers, it's 3/4. If they lose eligibility, you lose more points.

 

Looking at the roster, I'm throwing out Doty and Brian Curran as they were walk-ons and don't count. Acosta, Stan Brown, and Minor all graduated to the best of my knowledge, so that's 12/12. Blanks, Hancock, Minton, Mitchell, Norman, and Wilson all returned this year, so they had to remain academically eligible, so that's 24/24. Hondo Webb and DJ Muepo transferred, but to the best of my knowledge remained eligible, so that's 6/8. But Osas flunked out and left the program, so (I think!) that's an 0/2. Adding everything up, I get 42/46 for an APR for 2012-13 of 913. Yuck. That's a two-year average of 909 and a four-year average of 908. Which means it's going to be tough to achieve the needed goals even next year if anyone else leaves the program (I am assuming Hilliard's transfer won't hit our APR... it seems like that is some sort of "double jeopardy" if it does). But if Mitchell transfers or if anyone has academic issues, we could be looking at extended scholarship losses or postseason bans. I mean, next year is going to be a tough slog no matter what--especially now that Hilliard is transferring--but, still, the spectre of having potentially more penalties coming in 2015 is going to make it even tougher to right the ship and for Tic to recruit successfully.

 

It may not be this ugly. Osas's Facebook page shows that he graduated from LU--so at some point, do we get some sort of credit for this even though he used up his basketball eligibility? Is he really an "0/2" if he graduated--if so, that seems like serious bull**** to me. What if Tre Lynch graduates from Southern this year? Does it matter that Muepo went JuCo or not? There's too much here I don't know the details of to make strong conclusions. Anyone out there know more about how these calculations are done?

 

Are we aware of what the exact penalties are going to be to LU for next season? Are we looking at losing the only scholarship we had available? A post-season ban? Practice time reductions? All of the above? It's just right now so hard to have a hell of a lot of optimism, even though I'm thrilled to see Tic get off to a good start recruiting and the staff he's put together seems to be an experienced, capable one. At this point, I'd just be happy to hear someone in the know tell me it's not quite as bad as it looks from my admittedly amateurish look at the raw numbers.

 

 

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Having a 2.6 GPA or higher when an athlete transfers is also important to a schools score.Giving a release to an athlete who has not maintained a 2.6 is a tough call.There is conversation among NCAA leaders to modify the APR methodology as a large number of schools may be ineligible for tournament play next year.
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I'm not sure how you figure the APR but the way that Bruce explained it on one hand it didn't sound bad. The 42/46 is pretty good percentage wise. GPA has to be figured in there or something or how in goodness name does a team like Kentucky who runs it's program off one-and-dones not go on probation? You telling me John Calipari's kids even go to class? There has to be more to it than that. Again, another head scratching moment from the NCAA.
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There are exceptions for leaving to play professional sports .

So what if you leave to take a great high paying job prior to graduating?

 

Why should becoming a "Pro Athlete" make a difference, especially if the "GOAL" is to get Student Athletes to graduate and get good jobs?

 

NCAA is so flawed in its thinking it is unreal.

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The NCAA has to basically herd cats to get enough of their over 300 division 1 member institutions to agree.This results in very slow progress on issues that seem to be no brainers to most.My pet peeve is that athletes have to make 20 per cent progress towards a degree every year to remain eligible.The unintended consequence of this rule is to make changing majors,which most students do at least once ,virtually impossible for athletes who wish to keep their scholarship as not all hours transfer to a new major.You would think that concerned NCAA educators who advertise about all the good they do would carve out an accommodation for students in good standing changing majors without being penalized.I did ask a few years ago if going to play professionally in other professional leagues like NFL,MLB or European leagues could result in similar APR exemptions if the athlete left in good standing and was told yes.
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I think we have some talent but to go on academic probation seems ludicrous to me. There are exceptions to every rule it seems as long as they don't necessarily apply to Lamar. The academic standing of the basketball team seems to have a direct correlation to the former basketball coach and perhaps the AD. So the new coach and the players who have put up with the previous coach get penalized. Nobody ever said the world was fair but this one is a little tough to swallow.
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One of the reasons the APR is a joke is that the large schools have entire organizations of compliance personnel who do nothing but write waivers and seek loopholes for athletes who would end up being hits to the school's APR. Throw in the cupcake courses for athletes at the power conference schools and pretty much the only way a large school takes an APR hit is if they stumble multiple times with players who can't cut it academically. Since you get the non-retention "point" back if a player remains academically eligible but transfers to another four-year school, the large programs can 'dismiss' all the players they want (because a player who might not be good enough to crack the rotation at a large conference school will always find a home in the lower-profile conferences) and their APR remains intact. But if a small conference school wants to rebuild because of a lack of talent, they can't afford to let anyone go because the APR impact will be devastating.

 

While I don't think Nimrod leaving will hit our APR, if Rhon Mitchell does (as is rumored), we'll take an APR hit unless another four-year program takes him in. Even if his grades are perfectly good.

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Rock's job was in jeopardy after the first year of his three year contract.He recruited talented players and some had issues.He made sure those players who needed extra attention got it including weekends.Knight espoused that young men should be responsible.This was a terrible philosophy mismatch.More of the blame for this APR issue should fall on Knight as I believe Rock better understood and provided the oversight needed .Knight coming from BCS programs did not have the experience in dealing with some of the challenges non BCS schools face nor the fire in the belly to do so.At Southland schools Knight failed to recognize that head coaches sometimes need to be the chief cook and bottle washer and not the delegator in chief.
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Mix one part disadvantaged athlete and blend with disinterested leadship (aka Bob's bouncing baby boy Pat) and as curran said there's blame enough for all. But, it's the leadship that sets the tone. As stated in an earlier post Coach Rock made the effort to get his players on the right track. It can certainly be done but it begins with a head coach who cares about his players and knows how to set them up to succeed. If you put a ratio on it I'd say it's 70-30 Coach to player. Maybe even 80-20 because the kid needs to put up an effort but without motivation and leadership does everyone put the onus on an 18 year old kid who has probably rarely, if ever, been self motivated in his school work? It's real easy to blame the kid but without a head coach who makes education a priority why would the kid care? It's just human nature to take the path of least resistance and with a rudderless ship the kid is likely to go all Alfred E Newman and say, "What, me worry?". The more I find out about the PK regime the more pissed I get. To think he got paid a huge sum of money for screwing the Lamar pooch is downright sickening.
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I wonder if negotiating minimum APR standards tied to the coach's salary or incentives might help. Based on a recent Beaumont Enterprise "In the Cards" article discussed in another thread on this site, Coach Price gets an additional $3,000 if the team APR is 970. Just wondering if it might be beneficial to try to manage the minimum APR with a salary penalty or at least as a requirement to receive other incentive payouts. The requirements would need to be structured where the coach had some control. For example, there's not much a current coach could do about past deficiencies, but a coach should be able to help prevent future ones...at least on his watch.

 

Link to "In the Cards" article: http://blog.beaumontenterprise.com/inthecards/2014/04/03/tic-prices-contract-released/

 

Companies I worked for with Incentive Comp programs had minimum overall threshold standards which had to be met before the incentive components kicked in.

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