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Playoff Bracket Projection

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While I don't think he's on the Committee, we know there's a lack of people who are focusing on projecting the bracket.

2025 FCS playoff bracket predictions entering the final month of the season | NCAA.com

His projection is based on:
1) No slipping up against the two "should win" games AND also beating SELA
2) SFA winning out

He put SFA as the #15 and Lamar as the #16. 

Like I said, it's not the be all, end all.... but it's a decent way to frame it that we know that if we win 3 of 4, we're probably in.

I'd rather have the guys sweep and be in position to potentially get a bye.

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  • Lamar just needs to win out.  A 10-2 Lamar with wins over three FCS ranked teams should deserve a home game if not a bye.

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I believe Monmouth and sdsu have starting qb injuries

that said, i dont think theres any way sdsu doesnt get a bye.

once you get outta the top few…and having their home field advantages, lots of parity in the next 15 or so teams

nicholls old qb transferred to villinova.  Having an ok year

From the article...

This might be the most exciting conference race in the FCS this season, with four teams sitting at 6-2 or better. The Southland has an excellent shot at getting three teams into the field. The biggest part of this is that Southeastern Louisiana and Stephen F. Austin do not play each other, giving both a chance to reach 9-10 wins. The Lumberjacks have a non-Division I win, which means they need to make a push to 10 wins to feel safe.

Lamar is the other team in this auto-bid race. The Cardinals are currently 6-0 against the FCS, including a key out-of-conference win over South Dakota. Lamar has flirted with losses each of the last four games, but continues to find ways to win. They finish the year with UIW, SLU, SFA, and McNeese. Even at 2-2 over that stretch, Lamar will have a solid resume at 9-3 overall, assuming they don't get blown out in either loss.

 

I agree with Lamar as a playoff team even finishing 2-2 as long as neither is a blowout loss.  I'm concerned that this week has the most potential for a blowout loss.

41 minutes ago, coachacola said:

 

This one has all three SLC teams in, but they are all unseeded.  And this one has LU going through NDSU again, which means they see LU as the third place team of the SLC and the last team in the bracket. 

I wish theyd send one of those northeastern teams to play slc.  Always seems slc gets mvfc or big sky

Based on current FCS Conference Standings there are maybe 21 teams that could end the year with only three losses.  The list does not include the SWAC conference as they have their own special end of year Championship game.  Has the Ivy League decided to participate in the playoffs, they did not use to.

10 hours ago, geezer said:

Based on current FCS Conference Standings there are maybe 21 teams that could end the year with only three losses.  The list does not include the SWAC conference as they have their own special end of year Championship game.  Has the Ivy League decided to participate in the playoffs, they did not use to.

The IVY League is participating and gets an Auto bid, but the MEAC does not.  There are eleven conferences with auto bids and two of those do not have a top 25 ranked school.  That would indicate that number 23, 24 and 25 would get left out of the playoffs, but with multiple rankings to evaluate it is still a guess if your school isn't in the top 20 which puts the SLC as a potential snub for a third bid.

18 minutes ago, coachacola said:

 

Well this doesn't value LU very much, being the last team seeded in a field of 24.  We have wins over two programs with higher seeds, and our losses are to 1) a team that is on the bubble to be the Group of 5 entry to the FBS playoffs, and the other is to a team that beat the 13th seed with a 6-4 record, ACU.  They must be reading Puddin's posts about our offense and discounting our chances.  I mean really, we just beat SELA and they are ranked not only ahead of us, but 9 spots ahead. Disrespect of the highest order!!

This also tells me that if we do lose to SFA, this guys thinks we are screwed.  SELA will get the spot even with us having a head to head win. 

Just win Lamar it makes everything better in the end.  There are still some head-to-head games in other conference that can have a big impact.

These folks put so much into massey ratings.  It has us (28)behind both sela (21) and South Dakota (10).  Massey hating on LU.

i think theres a really good chance now of 3 slc teams making it, baring major screwup. The big sky and mvfc are a mess after mt, mt st, and ndsu. The caa may take a spot if nh wins out , even with 4 losses. Or if they stick 2 from the ivy.

Sfsu and monmouth both lost qbs, and its showing.  
 

plain fact is some of these know it allsthink didly squat of the SLC and thats a shame.

9 hours ago, puddin tane said:

These folks put so much into massey ratings.  It has us (28)behind both sela (21) and South Dakota (10).  Massey hating on LU.

i think theres a really good chance now of 3 slc teams making it, baring major screwup. The big sky and mvfc are a mess after mt, mt st, and ndsu. The caa may take a spot if nh wins out , even with 4 losses. Or if they stick 2 from the ivy.

Sfsu and monmouth both lost qbs, and its showing.  
 

plain fact is some of these know it allsthink didly squat of the SLC and thats a shame.

While I agree, the people putting a lot of this together think way too highly of those two conferences, the rest of us haven't won enough games against them to change the view.  Especially the farther down the conference standings you go.  This year could be changing that.

Massey has their own rankings and they also have the composite rankings which combines all the different rankings and polls.  I have no idea which individual rankings are the most accurate.

As far as the playoffs are concerned LU should get in with a 9-3 record, but if they get blown out by SFA then I doubt they would.  I think we can all agree LU controls their own destiny and charging into the playoffs at 10-2 is a lot better than sneaking in at 9-3.

11 hours ago, coachacola said:

 

Relevant comments about LU and the SLC in the Hero Sports bracketology article.

SFA is in at 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, featuring one currently-ranked win over Lamar and enjoying a 10-game winning streak entering the playoffs.

Lamar and Villanova are projected to hit nine wins. Lamar will have two currently-ranked wins over USD and Southeastern Louisiana. Villanova won’t have any currently-ranked wins. Both teams’ SOS are in the upper 40s or 50s.

The last four in include a nine-win Southeastern Louisiana team at 9-1 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins.

 

Lamar just needs to win out.  A 10-2 Lamar with wins over three FCS ranked teams should deserve a home game if not a bye.

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